Guides to Business Subjects

No. 3 Economic Statistics and Forecasts

This is one of a series of subject guides produced by the Thomas J. Long Business Library at the University of California, Berkeley. Unless otherwise noted, all call number locations are in the Long Library.

Projections are produced by governmental, academic and private research organizations. Forecasting models use a standard set of macroeconomic statistics including GDP, CPI, unemployment rate, corporate profits, change in business inventories, housing starts, interest rates, exports, personal savings rate and others.

Some forecasts are very detailed and analyze the components of these statistics; most also include some additional data elements particular to the methodological point of view. In addition to macroeconomic forecasts, there are also projections of demographic and commercial trends which measure population changes, consumer attitudes, and other factors crucial to market research and business planning.

Last updated 12/2008

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Global
United States
California
Forecasts and Surveys

Category	Sources
Global	Economist Intelligence Unit Country Reports - monthly reports on 200 countries. Coverage of politics, economic policy, domestic economy, sector trends, and foreign trade and payments. Country Profiles - in-depth annual reports covering political, economic and social sectors of each country. Eurostat - European statistics Euroindicators contains a selection of the main monthly and quarterly indicators. Structural indicators present annual data for employment, innovation and research, economic reform, social cohesion, the environment and economic conditions. It also contains data on the United States and Japan. Regio database - regional data European Business Facts & Figures HC241.2 P251 Reference Global Financial Database Economic Series include current and historical Unemployment Rates, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumer and Producer Price Indices, Exchange Rates including spot rates, forward rates, black market rates and major cross rates. Commodity data with both cash and futures prices, Commodity Indices. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Statistics for member countries from member country statistical authorities. International Financial Statistics Financial, trade and national accounts statistics published for 200+ countries. Includes exchange rates, IMF fund accounts and main global and country economic indicators. Available from 1948 Direction of Trade Statistics Country exports and imports by their partners. 186 countries, 7 years of annual data Lexis-Nexis Statistical Global, national, regional statistics. Bibliographic citations for most - full data is available on microfiche. Lexis-Nexis Statistical Datasets - full datasets for select data series. Source OECD - economics publications of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development Reports and statistics for OECD's 30 member countries which represent the world's most developed economies, as well as for some non-member countries. Includes Economic Outlook, Economic Surveys, Economic Studies, Economic Policy, National Accounts of OECD countries, Main Economic Indicators. Economics glossary World Bank: World Development Indicators Annual data on 800 indicators relating to economic, demographic, social and environmental themes. 1960+
United States	Bureau of Economic Analysis US economic accounts (national, regional and local) and the monthly publication Survey of Current Business. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment/unemployment national, regional, local. Consumer and producer price indexes. Liber8 - Federal Reserve of St. Louis Economic data Links to banking and economic data for the US and internationally. National Bureau of Economic Research Research, publications, etc. NBER working papers - search library catalog for NBER working papers by title or author (UCB resource only). Economic Data including the annual Economic Report of the President and Business Cycle Expansion and Contractions and NBER MacroHistory Database with pre-WWI and interwar economies, including production, construction, employment, money, prices, asset market transactions, foreign trade, and government activity. Statistical Abstract of the United States U.S. Bureau of the Census. Annual. Prime source for US economic statistics. HA203 .A3 Reference
California	Annual Report: Statistics and Profile (PDF) California State Board of Equalization. Annual. Provides data on total assessed property values by county; property taxes levied by county; sales and use taxes and permits; beer, wine, and liquor consumption; etc. Bay Area Economic Forum Provides the full text of a variety of reports on the San Francisco Bay Region economy. Beige Book Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District. Monthly. California Agricultural Statistics Links to data on California agriculture. California Construction Data California Department of Finance. California Consumer Price (CPI) Data California Department of Finance. California Economic Indicators California Department of Finance. Bimonthly. Contains basic statistical compilations such as employment, hours and earnings, trade, business, consumer price index, production, and construction. HC107 .C2A2247 Reference California Economy at a Glance U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Includes current data on labor force, nonfarm wage and employment, and layoffs. California Labor Market Review (PDF) California Employment Development Department. Monthly. Reports on employment and unemployment statewide, by county and selectively by industry. California Statistical Abstract California Department of Finance. Annual. Statistical data arranged by county, city and metropolitan area in Appendix. Covers population, labor force and employment, personal and corporate income, manufacturing, agriculture, construction, retail and wholesale trade, transportation, and education, gross state product, cost of living, homeownership, banking, industry, taxation, etc. California Trade Data California Department of Finance. County Business Patterns: California U.S. Bureau of the Census. Annual. HC107 .C3C69 Reference Projections Association of Bay Area Governments. Projects population and job growth for Bay Area counties. HD5726 .S4.P72 Reference Taxable Sales in California California State Board of Equalization. Quarterly. Provides taxable sales by type of business for counties and cities. UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation and California John B. Anderson Graduate School of Management at UCLA. Quarterly. HC106.8 .U353 Reference
Forecasts and Surveys	Consumer Confidence Survey Conference Board. Monthly. Consumer Confidence Index 6 - 12-month consumer expectations, Consumer Confidence by Region. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is classified as a leading economic indicator by the U. S. Department of Commerce and is also carried in that agency's monthly publication Survey of Current Business. SRI microfiche R 4105-4 for full report. Livingston Survey Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Twice yearly. Oldest continuous survey of economists' expectations. It summarizes the forecasts of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia. Survey of Consumers University of Michigan, Institute of Social Research. Monthly. Reports changes in consumer attitudes and expectations for their own finances and the economy. SRI microfiche U7475-2 Survey of Professional Forecasters Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Quarterly. The oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. UCLA Anderson Business Forecast for the Nation and California UCLA Anderson Graduate School of Management. Quarterly. Provides detailed forecasts with narrative analysis. HC106.8 .U353 Reference U.S. Industry & Trade Outlook DRI/McGraw Hill. Annual. Prospects for over 350 manufacturing and service industries are combined with the federal macro-economic forecast for the nation as a whole. Statistical tables covering historical, current and projected data, plus import and export trade ratios are standard features of each industry analysis. Data elements include shipments, inventories, value of imports and exports, consumption, etc. HC106.5 .A146 Reference World Economic Outlook International Monetary Fund. Annual.